Quantitative risk estimates for a health impact assessment model of urban developments
| Environmental factors | Health effects for which quantitative risk estimates could be or have been derived given the current evidence base |
|---|---|
| Air | Acute effects on mortality and hospital admissions, and long term effects on mortality and chronic diseases exist24,25 |
| Chemicals | Lifetime cancer risk estimates for changes in chemical carcinogen concentrations exist23 |
| Noise | Community noise is considered a possible contributor to heart disease,28 but the noise exposed population and multiple sources of noise (demolition, construction, operation and traffic) must be considered. The physical health effects from short-term noise exposure are unclear |
| Traffic (trauma/exercise) | Accident statistics are available for local areas, although a proportion of injured people are not locally resident. Modal shifts (between vehicle and walking or cycling) are not usually assessed within environmental statements, so these health effects are difficult to quantify30 |
| Water (tap) | See chemicals; infections short-term. Difficult to estimate population exposed |
| Agriculture | Not usually relevant to urban developments |
| Forestry (fire) | Not usually relevant to urban developments |
| Climate | Effects very long-term and international. Small contribution from an individual development to the overall effect43 |
| Hazardous incidents | Not included in the model |
| Community severance | Effects on physical health are not quantified |
| Changes in employment | Complex effects, both negative and positive.44 Difficult to quantify the exposed population |
| Changes in health and welfare services | The health impacts of health services at national level have been estimated.45 Environmental statements usually only describe changes in provision |
| Sociocultural effects | Relation to health not quantified46 |
| Recreation (leisure) | Changes in population exercise are not usually quantified in environmental statements47 |